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- The British Pound (GBP) is trading mostly flat around 1.3450 against the US Dollar (USD).
- Investors are waiting for new signals on whether the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates again this year.
🔍 What’s Driving the Market?
🏦 Bank of England (BoE) Outlook
- MPC member Megan Greene urged caution on further rate cuts, saying inflation risks may rise again.
- She noted that UK trade tensions have eased and growth could rebound without harming the job market.
- Last week, the BoE held rates steady, after cutting them by 25 basis points to 4.00% in August.
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey also prefers a slow and careful approach to easing.
🇺🇸 Upcoming US Data Could Move GBP/USD
- The US Dollar is holding firm ahead of several key data releases at 12:30 GMT, including:
- Q2 GDP (final estimate)
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Durable Goods Orders
- Strong US data could boost the USD further, while weak numbers may put pressure on it.
📉 Job Market Focus:
- Initial jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 235K (from 231K).
- Recent jobless claims spiked to 264K, the highest in 4 years, raising concerns about a weakening labor market.
🏭 Durable Goods Orders:
- Expected to drop by 0.5% in August, following a larger 2.8% fall in July.
- This data could influence Fed expectations and USD strength.
🧠 What Fed Officials Are Saying:
- Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and Mary Daly, are being cautious about cutting rates too fast.
- Daly said more rate cuts may still be needed to support the job market and manage inflation risks.
💹 Technical Outlook for GBP/USD
- GBP/USD remains under pressure below the 20-day EMA (1.3514).
- The pair is near the lower edge of a rising channel (around 1.3470), suggesting a potential breakdown.
- RSI has dropped below 50; a break under 40 could signal fresh bearish momentum.
📉 Key Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.3140 (August 1 low)
- Resistance: 1.3800 (July 1 high)