💱 Market Overview
- EUR/USD has fallen from 1.1820 highs to below 1.1770, hitting fresh session lows on Wednesday.
- The decline is driven by:
- Weak German economic data
- Risk-off market sentiment
- US Dollar strength as a safe-haven currency
🇩🇪 Germany: Weak Business Sentiment Data
- IFO Business Climate Index for September:
- 📉 Fell to 87.7 (vs. expected 89.3, previous 89.0)
- Current Conditions Index:
- Dropped to 85.67 (from 86.4)
- Expectations Index:
- Dropped to 89.7 (from 91.6)
These readings indicate deteriorating sentiment among German businesses.
🇪🇺 Eurozone PMI Summary
- Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary, Sep):
- ✅ Rose to 51.4 (vs. expected 50.5)
- Shows modest expansion
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI:
- ❌ Fell to 49.5 (vs. expected 50.9) → Contraction zone
- Germany:
- Manufacturing PMI: ❌ 48.5 (vs. expected 50.0)
- Services PMI: ✅ 52.5 (vs. expected 49.5)
- France:
- Manufacturing PMI: ❌ 48.1 (vs. expected 50.2)
- Services PMI: ❌ 48.9 (vs. expected 49.6)
Overall, manufacturing across the Eurozone is contracting, while services show mixed results.
🇺🇸 US Economic Data & Fed Commentary
- US Flash PMIs (Sep):
- Services PMI: Fell to 53.9 (from 54.5)
- Manufacturing PMI: Dropped to 52.0 (from 53.0)
- These results met market expectations.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tuesday speech):
- Maintained a cautious stance on further rate cuts
- Emphasized inflation risks vs. labor market weakness
- Stated: “A challenging situation”
- Markets still expect two more rate cuts in 2025, despite Powell’s warning
- Upcoming US Data:
- New Home Sales (August) – due Wednesday
- PCE Price Index (August) – due Friday
📉 EUR/USD Technical Analysis
- Price is trading below 1.1780, with bearish momentum building
- RSI on the 4-hour chart is below 50 – signaling bearish bias
- MACD is crossing below signal line – confirming downside risk
🔻 Key Support Levels:
- 1.1740: Trendline support from September 2
- 1.1730: Low from September 22
- 1.1700: Low from September 12
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
- 1.1820: Tuesday high
- 1.1850: High from September 18
- 1.1878: High from September 16
🧊 Risk Sentiment: Market is “Risk-Off”
- Investors are shifting to safe-haven assets:
- USD, JPY, CHF gaining
- Stocks and high-yield currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) under pressure
💶 Euro Price Performance (vs. Major Currencies)
| Base: EUR | USD | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change | -0.32% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.60% | -0.18% | -0.03% |
- Euro is weakest vs. the Australian Dollar (-0.60%)
- Euro is flat vs. the British Pound and Japanese Yen
❓ Risk Sentiment FAQs – Key Takeaways
| Market Mode | Description | Assets That Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | Investors take on risk | Stocks, AUD, CAD, NZD, Cryptos |
| Risk-Off | Investors avoid risk | USD, JPY, CHF, Bonds, Gold |