🔻 Market Overview
- EUR/USD is falling, currently trading below 1.1770, after dropping from recent highs around 1.1820.
- The decline is driven by:
- Weaker-than-expected German business climate data
- Risk-off market sentiment
- Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar
🇩🇪 Euro Weakened by Poor German Business Climate Data
- German IFO Business Climate Index (Sep):
- Actual: 87.7
- Previous: 89.0
- Expected: 89.3
- Interpretation: Sentiment deteriorated among German businesses.
- Current Conditions Index:
- Fell to 85.67 from 86.4
- Expectations Index:
- Dropped to 89.7 from 91.6
🇺🇸 US Data and Fed Comments Support USD
- US Flash PMI (Sep):
- Services: 53.9 (vs. 54.5 prior)
- Manufacturing: 52.0 (vs. 53.0 prior)
- Results align with expectations, indicating slowing but still positive growth.
- Fed Chair Powell (Tue):
- Warned that rate cuts are not guaranteed
- Emphasized the “challenging situation” with inflation and labor market
- Despite this, markets still expect rate cuts in November and December.
- USD gains as risk aversion supports safe-haven flows.
📊 Eurozone and France PMI Highlights
- Eurozone Services PMI (Sep):
- Rose to 51.4 (vs. 50.5 expected)
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI:
- Fell to 49.5 (vs. 50.9 expected)
- Germany:
- Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 (vs. 50.0 expected)
- Services PMI: 52.5 (vs. 49.5 expected)
- France:
- Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 (vs. 50.2 expected)
- Services PMI: 48.9 (vs. 49.6 expected)
➡️ Overall, mixed services growth and declining manufacturing add to Euro pressure.
📉 Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Eyes 1.1740 Support
- Bearish momentum continues below 1.1780
- Key support zone:
- Trendline from Sep 2 lows: ~1.1740
- Next levels:
- Sep 22 low: 1.1730
- Sep 12 low: 1.1700
- Indicators:
- RSI below 50 = bearish signal
- MACD crossed below signal line = selling pressure confirmed
- Resistance on upside:
- 1.1820 (Tue high)
- 1.1850 (Sep 18)
- 1.1878 (Sep 16)
🔄 Currency Performance Snapshot
- EUR underperforms most majors, strongest only vs. JPY
- USD broadly strong amid risk-off sentiment
| Base / Quote | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | 0.54% | 0.46% | 0.55% | 0.29% | -0.15% | 0.37% | 0.40% |
| EUR | -0.54% | — | -0.08% | 0.02% | -0.25% | -0.69% | -0.16% | -0.14% |
📘 Indicator Spotlight: IFO Business Climate Index
- Released monthly by Germany’s IFO Institute
- Based on a survey of 7,000+ companies
- Measures:
- Current business conditions
- Expectations for the next 6 months
- High readings → Bullish for EUR
- Low readings → Bearish for EUR