- Release Time:
🕧 12:30 GMT today - What’s Expected:
📉 Durable Goods Orders are forecast to decline by 0.5% in August.
📉 This would be the third consecutive monthly decline, but smaller than the 2.8% drop in July.
🧾 What Are Durable Goods Orders?
- Durable Goods Orders track new orders placed with US manufacturers for long-lasting goods (e.g. cars, machinery, appliances).
- These goods usually last 3 years or more, so demand for them reflects business and consumer confidence.
- The data is seen as a leading indicator of economic activity.
📈 Why It Matters for Markets (especially EUR/USD)
- Stronger-than-expected data (less decline or growth)
→ 🟩 Bullish for USD
→ Could push EUR/USD lower as investors favor the Dollar. - Weaker-than-expected data (bigger decline)
→ 🟥 Bearish for USD
→ Could support EUR/USD, leading to a bounce or rebound.
💬 Fed Policy Implications
- Rising durable goods orders may signal stronger demand, possibly fueling inflation → more hawkish Fed.
- Falling orders suggest cooling economic activity, easing inflation risks → more dovish Fed.
💱 EUR/USD Technical Snapshot
- Current price: Near 1.1750, after falling from 1.1820 this week.
- 20-day EMA sits near 1.1744 → the pair is testing this support.
- 14-day RSI: Neutral (between 40 and 60) → signals a sideways trend.
Key levels to watch:
- 🔼 Upside:
- 1.1920 (4-year high)
- 1.2000 (psychological resistance)
- 🔽 Downside:
- 1.1700 (September 12 low)
- 1.1600 (September low, major support)
🧠 Summary
- If Durable Goods Orders beat expectations → USD could strengthen, EUR/USD may fall below 1.1700.
- If data misses → USD may weaken, EUR/USD could rebound toward 1.1800 or higher.
- Market focus remains on US growth outlook and Fed interest rate direction.