The Euro touched fresh two-month highs around 1.1800, supported by ongoing weakness in the US Dollar. Traders’ hopes for a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve are putting pressure on the Dollar, while the Euro continues to find strength.
EUR/USD bulls are pushing past 1.1790, eyeing the long-term resistance near 1.1830. The pair’s momentum got an extra lift from surprisingly positive economic sentiment data out of Germany, helping it consolidate above these key levels—the highest since early July.
What’s Behind the Move?
The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) reported improved investor optimism about the economic outlook in September, even though confidence in the current economic situation declined for the second straight month. Similarly, the Eurozone Sentiment Index rebounded more than expected after a sharp drop in August.
Meanwhile, expectations of lower US interest rates continue to weigh on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index—which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies—has dropped to nearly two-month lows, while Wall Street stock indexes hit fresh record highs. This positive risk sentiment is overshadowing worries about French debt and helping the Euro gain ground.
Euro Price Movements Today
Below is a quick look at the Euro’s percentage changes against major currencies today. The Euro showed the strongest gains against the Australian Dollar.
| Base \ Quote | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.39% | -0.30% | -0.25% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.41% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.30% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.21% | 0.31% | 0.30% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.25% | 0.29% | 0.10% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.30% | -0.21% | -0.25% | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.33% | |
| AUD | 0.04% | -0.40% | -0.31% | -0.29% | -0.04% | 0.08% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | -0.40% | -0.30% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.37% | |
| CHF | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.10% | 0.33% | 0.41% | 0.37% |
Note: The table shows the percentage change for the base currency (left column) versus the quote currency (top row). For example, the EUR/USD cell shows Euro as base and US Dollar as quote.
Market Movers: US Dollar Weakness on Fed Rate Cut Bets
The US Dollar remains under pressure as markets price in a quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday, along with expectations for more dovish guidance.
Investors increasingly believe the Fed is behind the curve and may need to accelerate its rate cuts over the coming months.
Recent US political news adds to this sentiment: the Senate confirmed Stephen Miran—former economic advisor to President Trump—as a Fed Governor, bringing a dovish voice to the board. Additionally, Fed Governor Lisa Cook will remain on the board after a court blocked Trump’s attempt to remove her.
Key Economic Data Updates
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 37.3 in September from 34.7 in August, beating forecasts of a fall to 27.3. However, the Current Situation Index worsened to -76.4 from -68.6, below expectations.
- The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index also improved unexpectedly to 26.1 in September from 25.1 in August, defying forecasts for a decline.
- Eurozone Industrial Production rebounded by 0.3% in July after a drop in June. On a year-on-year basis, factory output accelerated 1.8%, above market expectations.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Eyes 1.1800 and Beyond
EUR/USD continues its upward move, supported more by US Dollar weakness than by Eurozone domestic issues for now.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart stands at 66, signaling solid bullish momentum.
- Bulls have broken through the July 24 high of 1.1790 and are now testing the 1.1800 area.
- Resistance lies ahead at the July 1 high of 1.1830, with a Fibonacci extension target at 1.1885.
- On the downside, previous resistance near 1.1750 now acts as support, followed by the September 12 low near 1.1700 and the ascending channel bottom around 1.1690.
- A further drop could see the September 11 low at 1.1660 come into focus.