NZD/USD edges higher toward the 0.5800 resistance level, supported by improving sentiment in New Zealand’s business sector, according to BBH FX analysts. The October ANZ Business Outlook Survey showed optimism rising, with business confidence climbing to an eight-month high of 58.1 (up from 49.6 in September), expected own activity reaching a six-month high of 44.6%, and reported past activity—considered a reliable GDP indicator—remaining stable at +5.
Despite these encouraging signals, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is still expected to ease monetary policy. Markets currently price in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, taking the cash rate to 2.25% at the November 26 policy meeting. BBH notes that while local economic sentiment strengthens the NZD, expectations of a looser RBNZ policy continue to cap gains, though resilient global economic activity provides some support for the currency.