Russia continues to find sufficient buyers for its crude oil despite Western sanctions, according to Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch.
Oil Shipments Remain High Even as Deliveries to Asia Ease
Data from Bloomberg show that Russia’s seaborne crude exports averaged 3.56 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, only marginally below the previous week’s figure. The four-week moving average eased slightly to 3.72 million bpd, following its highest level since May 2023 in the prior week.
Fritsch noted that shipments to China and India — Russia’s two largest buyers — have been declining in recent weeks. Exports to India have remained below 1 million bpd for the past three weeks, while deliveries to China have fallen for two consecutive weeks. However, he cautioned that the data may be incomplete and could be revised higher once more information becomes available.
Impact of US Sanctions Still Unclear
According to Fritsch, it is too early to attribute the recent dip in exports to the new US sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies. The persistently high overall export volumes suggest that Moscow continues to successfully reroute supplies and maintain its oil trade despite the restrictions.