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USD/JPY Eyes LDP Leadership Vote; Political Uncertainty Keeps 2-Way Risk Alive – OCBC

USD/JPY Retreats to 153.25 as Yen Gains on Intervention Warning

Posted on November 4, 2025

The US Dollar (USD) weakened against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, retreating from the 154.45 resistance level to test support around 153.25. Bulls had previously been capped at this level on October 9 and 27.

The move came amid a risk-averse market, with major European equity indices falling over 1% and Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issuing a verbal intervention warning. Katayama stated that Japanese authorities are monitoring markets “with urgency,” providing support to the Yen.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Trend Intact

Despite the pullback, USD/JPY maintains its broader bullish structure from mid-September. The pair broke a small triangle pattern around 154.20 and is now testing the previous resistance-turned-support at 153.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 50, indicating short-term bearish momentum.

Key technical levels:

  • Support: 153.00; a break below here could target 152.20 (October 30 low) and coincide with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October 29–30 rally.
  • Resistance: 154.50 (October 30 & November 4 highs), with further targets at 154.85 (February 13 high) and 155.30 (127.2% extension of last week’s rally).

JPY Performance Today

The Japanese Yen was the strongest performer against major currencies, particularly against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.13%0.53%-0.46%0.13%0.56%0.72%0.08%
JPY0.46%0.60%0.98%—0.61%1.04%1.19%

The heat map highlights JPY strength across the board, particularly versus risk-sensitive currencies.

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