EUR/USD Falls as Political Unrest in France and Strong US Data Support USD

The EUR/USD pair is trading lower for the third straight day, currently at 1.1765 on Friday, down from recent highs above 1.1900.
The Euro (EUR) is under pressure due to:
- Political unrest in France
- Lack of major economic data in the Eurozone
The US Dollar (USD) remains strong due to:
- Better-than-expected US jobless claims
- Stronger manufacturing activity data

Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Sep 12):
- Fell by 33,000 to 231,000
- Beat expectations of 240,000
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:
- Rose to 23.2, the highest since January
- Surpassed the expected 2.3 and August’s 0.3 contraction
This data suggests a more resilient US economy and supports short-term USD strength.
However, Fed rate cuts are still expected:
- 90% chance of a 25 bps cut in October
- 80% chance of another cut in December

A new wave of anti-austerity protests is gaining momentum.
Hundreds of thousands protested in major French cities on Thursday.
Protesters are pressuring President Emmanuel Macron and new PM Sébastien Lecornu to reverse proposed spending cuts.
This political instability is hurting EUR sentiment in the absence of strong Eurozone data.

European Central Bank (ECB):
- Vice President Luis de Guindos said current policy is “appropriate.”
- He warned of “high economic uncertainty” and hinted at possible further easing.
US Federal Reserve (Fed):
- Recently cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00–4.25%
- Dot Plot projects rates to fall to 3.6% by year-end
- Fed speakers like Mary Daly are expected to give more guidance on Friday.
US Supreme Court will rule on Trump-era trade tariffs on November 5, which may impact trade-related sentiment and markets.

Short-Term Support:
- 1.1750–1.1760: Held lows on Sep 15 and 18
- 1.1700–1.1710: Stronger support zone (Sep 12 low and trendline)
- 1.1660: Next support if the downtrend continues
Resistance Levels:
- 1.1790: Intra-day high
- 1.1850: Thursday’s peak
- 1.1878: Sep 16 high
Technical Indicators:
- RSI below 50 on the 4-hour chart, showing bearish momentum

Base Currency	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
EUR	-0.13%		+0.13%	-0.43%	-0.03%	+0.15%	+0.34%	+0.13%

EUR/USD is under pressure due to:
- Political instability in France
- Stronger-than-expected US data
The US Dollar is holding firm, but further gains may be limited due to:
- Fed’s expected rate cuts
- Neutral global market mood
Focus remains on upcoming Fed commentary and developments in French politics.