The Euro remains under pressure, trading near recent lows as the US Dollar continues to firm up on improving trade sentiment. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1615, marking its third straight day of losses after peaking at 1.1728 on Friday.
US-China Trade Hopes Boost USD
Market sentiment improved after President Trump confirmed a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week in South Korea, expressing optimism about reaching a “fair deal” to ease trade tensions. This helped reinforce the dollar’s strength.
Adding to the positive tone, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said the ongoing US government shutdown may end “sometime this week.” This would clear the way for the Federal Reserve to access fresh economic data ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected.
Lagarde Speech in Focus; Light Eurozone Calendar
The economic calendar is light today, with no major data releases from the Eurozone. All eyes are on a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, although she is not expected to deliver any significant policy updates, having spoken several times last week.
EUR Performance Today
The table below shows today’s percentage changes of the Euro (EUR) against major currencies. The Euro is strongest against the Japanese Yen and weakest against the US Dollar.
| Base \ Quote | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | +0.24% | +0.22% | +0.58% | +0.18% | +0.46% | +0.52% | +0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | -0.02% | +0.33% | -0.06% | +0.23% | +0.28% | -0.09% |
(Note: The heat map shows relative strength/weakness based on today’s price action.)
Market Sentiment & Political Risks
While trade optimism is supporting the dollar, volatility remains subdued ahead of key events next week, including the FOMC rate decision and the Trump-Xi summit.
In the Eurozone, political tensions remain a headwind. Although French PM Sebastién Lecornu survived recent no-confidence votes, the challenge of passing a tough budget through a divided parliament continues to weigh on the Euro’s outlook.
Meanwhile, Monday’s data from Germany showed that Producer Prices (PPI) fell 0.1% MoM in September, missing expectations of a 0.1% rise. Year-on-year, PPI declined 1.7%, marking the third consecutive monthly drop and underscoring persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Eyes 1.1600 Support
EUR/USD has broken back below the 1.1640 trendline, re-entering its previous bearish channel. The rejection from 1.1730 last week has shifted focus toward key downside levels.
- Immediate support is at 1.1600 (Oct 15 low)
- Below that, watch 1.1545 (Oct 9 & 14 lows) and 1.1470 (channel bottom)
- Resistance lies at 1.1675 (Monday’s high), with stronger resistance at 1.1730 and 1.1775 (Oct 1 high)
On the 4-hour chart:
- RSI has dropped below 50, indicating fading bullish momentum
- MACD is turning lower below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish outlook
Summary:
EUR/USD remains under pressure amid stronger USD sentiment driven by trade optimism and hopes of a US government resolution. Technical signals point to further downside toward 1.1600 unless the pair can reclaim resistance levels near 1.1675–1.1730.