The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is widely expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.50% at today’s policy meeting, according to FX analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH).
Firm Forint Backed by Real Yields and Surplus
The NBH is set to announce its decision at 1:00pm London / 8:00am New York. At its September 23 meeting, the central bank unanimously voted to keep rates steady at 6.50%, marking the 12th consecutive hold since its last rate cut of 25 basis points in September 2024.
There are no signs the NBH is preparing to shift from its current stance. The central bank has warned that inflation is expected to remain above its 3% ±1% target range for the rest of the year.
Despite market pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts over the next two years, BBH notes that Hungary’s positive real interest rates, a current account surplus (1.9% of GDP in Q2), and a loosely expansionary 2026 fiscal outlook all support continued strength in the Hungarian forint (HUF).