The Pound Sterling surged against major currencies after the UK released its latest employment figures. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.7%, matching forecasts and keeping the rate at a four-year high.
GBP gained notably against the US Dollar, hitting its highest level in over two months following the report covering the three months ending July. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed the UK economy added 232,000 jobs during this period, close to the expected 220,000 and just below June’s 239,000.
Wage growth showed steady gains as well: average earnings excluding bonuses rose 4.8% year-on-year, in line with estimates but down from 5% previously. Average earnings including bonuses, an important gauge for the Bank of England, increased 4.7%, slightly higher than the previous 4.6%.
What This Means for the BoE
Stable employment conditions should ease some concerns for Bank of England officials, who recently expressed worries about the labor market. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey mentioned he’s “more concerned about downside job risks” compared to other Monetary Policy Committee members who kept rates unchanged in August.
Looking ahead, investors are bracing for more volatility in the Pound this week. Key events include the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report on Wednesday and the BoE’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday.
The CPI is expected to show headline inflation edging up to 3.9% annually from 3.8%. A rise in inflation could increase the chances the BoE holds interest rates steady at 4%.
Pound Sterling Price Today
Here’s a snapshot of the Pound’s performance against major currencies today. The Pound was strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| Base \ Quote | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.31% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.31% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | 0.06% | -0.03% | 0.25% | 0.39% | 0.34% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.20% | 0.34% | 0.29% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.33% | 0.10% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | -0.25% | -0.20% | -0.25% | 0.08% | 0.05% | -0.26% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | -0.39% | -0.34% | -0.33% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.34% | -0.29% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.31% | -0.00% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.26% | 0.38% | 0.31% |
Note: The table shows the percentage change of the base currency (left column) against the quote currency (top row). For example, GBP/USD change is displayed in the GBP row under USD.
Daily Market Movers: Fed Dovish Bets Pressure the US Dollar
The Pound climbed near 1.3650 against the US Dollar during Tuesday’s European session, boosted by the UK employment data and a weaker US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, touched a seven-week low near 97.00 as traders increasingly price in a Federal Reserve rate cut.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 96% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut at Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with some betting on a 50 basis points reduction.
This dovish sentiment stems from growing concerns about the US labor market. Most Federal Open Market Committee members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested an easing of monetary policy in response to slowing job demand.
Wednesday’s Fed meeting will be closely watched for the monetary policy statement, dot plot forecasts, and Powell’s press conference, which will offer insights on the labor market and inflation outlook, including tariff impacts.
Also on Tuesday, attention will be on the US Retail Sales data for August, expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, slightly slower than July’s 0.5%.
Technical Analysis: Pound Nears 1.3650, Breaks Ascending Triangle
GBP/USD climbed to nearly 1.3650, its highest level in over two months, breaking out of an Ascending Triangle pattern.
- The triangle’s horizontal resistance lines up with the July 23 high near 1.3585.
- The rising support trend comes from the August 1 low around 1.3140.
- A decisive breakout suggests further upside potential.
The near-term trend remains bullish, with the pair trading near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.3520.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 60, signaling strong upward momentum.
Support lies at the August 1 low near 1.3140, while resistance is expected at the July 1 high near 1.3800.