The US Dollar (USD) is rebounding against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), with the USD/CAD pair rising toward 1.3950, its highest level in the session. The Greenback is firming as investors assess the implications of the newly announced US-China trade agreement and respond to a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which has offset the impact of a “hawkish cut” by the Bank of Canada (BoC) earlier in the week.
US-China Trade Deal Lifts Market Sentiment
The Dollar’s advance comes as markets digest reports of a trade agreement between the United States and China. According to statements from both sides, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping reached a deal to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, while China pledged to maintain rare-earth exports, resume purchases of US soybeans, and strengthen enforcement against illegal fentanyl exports.
Though details remain limited, Trump described the meeting as “amazing,” while Xi said the two leaders achieved a “consensus on important economic and trade issues,” according to China’s Xinhua News Agency. The optimism surrounding the deal has bolstered global risk sentiment, supporting demand for the US Dollar.
Fed’s Hawkish Tone Reinforces Dollar Strength
The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday also underpinned USD gains. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets by suggesting that another rate cut in December was not guaranteed, signaling a more hawkish stance than traders anticipated.
This shift in tone helped the Greenback rebound from one-month lows near 1.3880, pushing USD/CAD toward 1.3950 by Thursday’s European session.
Bank of Canada’s “Hawkish Cut” Offers Limited Support to Loonie
Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada also cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, in line with market expectations. However, Governor Tiff Macklem delivered an unexpectedly hawkish message during his post-meeting press conference, suggesting the BoC may be nearing the end of its easing cycle.
The initial boost to the Canadian Dollar from Macklem’s remarks quickly faded as global USD demand strengthened, keeping USD/CAD well-supported above 1.39.
Market Outlook
With risk sentiment improving and the Fed signaling confidence in the US economy, traders are watching whether USD/CAD can sustain gains above the 1.3950–1.3960 resistance zone. The pair’s near-term direction will likely depend on further clarity regarding the US-China trade deal and upcoming US macroeconomic data.
Central Banks Explained
What is the role of a central bank?
Central banks are responsible for maintaining price stability and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Major institutions like the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE) aim to keep inflation close to 2% by adjusting interest rates.
How do central banks control inflation?
When inflation rises above target, central banks raise interest rates (monetary tightening) to cool demand. When inflation falls below target, they cut rates (monetary easing) to encourage spending and investment. Policy decisions are communicated at scheduled meetings, influencing borrowing costs, savings rates, and currency values.
Who sets monetary policy?
Most central banks are politically independent. Policy boards include members with varying views:
- Doves prefer lower rates to stimulate growth, even at the risk of higher inflation.
- Hawks favor higher rates to curb inflation and reward savings.
Who leads the decision-making process?
Each central bank has a chair or president—such as Fed Chair Jerome Powell—who guides discussions, seeks consensus, and has the final say in the event of a voting tie. Ahead of major policy meetings, officials enter a “blackout period”, refraining from public comments to prevent market volatility.