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USD/CAD Trades Steadily Around 1.40 as Market Awaits Key Developments – BBH

Posted on October 23, 2025

USD/CAD remains steady near the 1.40 level as traders focus on potential catalysts, including a possible US-Canada trade agreement and Canada’s upcoming pro-growth budget next month, according to BBH FX analysts.


Canada Retail Sales Unlikely to Impact Market

The pair is currently trading without clear direction around 1.4000. Technical support is identified at 1.3961, corresponding to the 200-day moving average, while resistance stands at 1.4080, the high from October 14. The August retail sales report from Canada, scheduled for release at 1:30 pm London time (8:30 am New York), is not expected to cause significant market volatility.

Statistics Canada’s advance estimate shows retail sales rose by 1.0% month-on-month in August, rebounding from a 0.8% decline in July. However, BBH analysts see the risks for USD/CAD tilted to the downside, supported by hopes for a US-Canada trade deal next week and Canada’s pro-growth budget announcement on November 4.

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