The USD/CHF pair climbed to a fresh monthly high near 0.8040 during Thursday’s European session, as the US Dollar remains strong ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 12:30 GMT.
US Dollar Strength Drives USD/CHF Higher
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade firmly near 99.00, close to a two-month peak, after the FOMC minutes from the Fed’s September meeting suggested further rate cuts may be appropriate before the end of 2025. The minutes noted rising downside risks to the labor market, reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative stance from the central bank.
Market participants will closely watch Powell’s speech for any updates on:
- The Fed’s monetary policy path amid a slowing economy,
- The potential impact of the ongoing US government shutdown,
- And any signals about labor market normalization.
Swiss Franc Steady as SNB Unlikely to Revisit Negative Rates
On the Swiss side, the Swiss Franc (CHF) holds firm on expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will avoid pushing rates back into negative territory. This stance offers some support to the CHF, though the broader trend still favors the USD.
Technical Outlook: Bulls in Control Above 0.7975
From a technical perspective, USD/CHF continues to trade above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7975, indicating a bullish near-term bias.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains range-bound between 40 and 60, hinting at reduced momentum and potential volatility compression.
Key resistance levels to watch:
- 0.8170 – August 1 high
- 0.8215 – June 19 high
- 0.8248 – June 6 high
Key support levels:
- 0.7829 – September 17 low
- A break below this could expose 0.7800 as the next downside target.